Modeling & Forecasting Manager

Oregon Metro • Full-time • Portland, Oregon, United States • $134k - $172k / year • 1h ago

Hello, we’re Metro! Metro is dedicated to shaping a better future for the greater Portland region. The work the people of Metro do every day benefits the lives of the people who live here, today, and tomorrow.

The Planning, Development, and Research Department leads the development of regional land use and transportation policies that shape the future of the metropolitan region. We are seeking a collaborative and strategic Modeling and Forecasting Manager to lead a team responsible for the forecasting, modeling, and analytical work that informs major transportation investments, growth management decisions, climate planning efforts, and long-range regional policy development.

The ideal candidate is an inclusive and adaptive leader who can inspire staff around a vision for the future of transportation and land use forecasting while ensuring projects are delivered on time and within budget. This role partners with internal teams and external stakeholders to identify forecasting needs, develop scopes of work, manage timelines and budgets, and deliver the technical analyses that support data-driven decision-making across the region. The successful candidate will combine proven leadership ability, technical expertise, and relationship-building skills to help shape the region's future.

As the Modeling and Foresting Manager, you will:

Lead and oversee a multidisciplinary team responsible for transportation and land use modeling, forecasting, and related regional planning initiatives.
Direct the creation of forecasting and technical analysis to support major regional planning efforts, including the Regional Transportation Plan (RTP), Metropolitan Transportation Improvement Program (MTIP), transportation corridor studies, project development, and NEPA compliance activities.
Provide modeling and forecasting leadership for Federal Transit Administration (FTA) funding initiatives, including Capital Investment Grant (CIG) applications and other federal grant submittals.
Guide regional planning and forecasting efforts that support state-mandated greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets, urban growth boundary (UGB) decisions, and long-range land use planning.
Partner with planning, policy, and program teams across Metro and external agency stakeholders to identify forecasting needs and deliver data-driven analyses that inform transportation investments and policy decisions.
Collaborate with Data Stewardship and Data Analytics & Applications teams to integrate and analyze land use, housing, economic, demographic, infrastructure, zoning, and transportation data.
Lead the research, development, maintenance, and continuous improvement of travel demand models, forecasting tools, and transportation data resources, while staying current on emerging technologies and industry best practices.
Develop and manage section budgets, including budget narratives, financial tracking, federal funding coordination through the Unified Planning Work Program (UPWP), and ongoing budget-to-actual performance monitoring.
Provide full supervisory leadership for professional and supervisory staff, including hiring, performance management, employee development, coaching, discipline, workforce planning, and fostering a collaborative, high-performing team culture.
Direct section operations, work planning, resource allocation, and contracting activities, while ensuring projects, consultants, data management practices, and software development processes align with industry standards, organizational goals, and state-of-the-practice modeling and forecasting methodologies.

Attributes for success

Ability to build and maintain positive and effective working relationships with staff, jurisdictional partners, community members and community partner organizations who have different opinions and life experiences.
Empathetic listener who can inspire and engage a diverse range of staff and managers across the department/agency.
Effective communicator who is experienced with presentations and facilitating difficult conversations.
Strategic thinker who can identify options and chart a course of actions to lead projects to successful conclusions.
Highly organized, with the ability to develop realistic timelines when working across teams.
Expertise in land use and transportation forecasting tool development, maintenance, and use.
Experience in use of forecasting data in land use and transportation planning, policy and project analysis, performance metrics, and visualization.
Experience in equity-aware modeling practices recognizing how data, models, and forecasts are shaped by historical, structural, and systemic factors.